Sunday, 6 April 2008

PDCA ("Plan-Do-Check-Act")

PDCA ("Plan-Do-Check-Act") is an iterative four-step problem-solving process typically used in quality control. It is also known as the Deming Cycle, Shewhart cycle, Deming Wheel, or Plan-Do-Study-Act.

"PLAN
Establish the objectives and processes necessary to deliver results in accordance with the specifications.

DO
Implement the processes.

CHECK
Monitor and evaluate the processes and results against objectives and Specifications and report the outcome.

ACT
Apply actions to the outcome for necessary improvement. This means reviewing all steps (Plan, Do, Check, Act) and modifying the process to improve it before its next implementation."

Now readers, try thinking how this approach can be helpful to your personal investment?

1- PLAN - Assuming I want to reach 100K hard-cold cash by FY2009, which is 20months away from now.

100K divide 20 months = 5K per month.

So how are you going to achieve this 5K per month with a single source of income??? What type of investment suits you in order to achieve compound interest rate of 10-15% per year?

2- DO

Implement action and make sure your net worth heads north over south and know the meaning of "needs" and"wants"

3- CHECK

Ensure that you are staying focus on your plan and spend at least 1 hour every to review your goals

4- ACT

Keep a positive mind frame if you are getting progress and the right result in your forecast plan, however if you are off the track along the way, do something about it to bring what is wrong to right.

Target Price Revised - 6th April 2008


Target Price

Capitaland 8.00
Ezra 4.0
Yanlord 3.3
SembCorp Marine 4.50
Olam 3.5
Raffles Education 2.0
Golden Agriculture 1.30
**Shortlist - ARA, SembCrop Industries, OCBC, KS Energy, Swiber, Parkway Holdings, and (more) Capitaland

Saturday, 5 April 2008

My Favourite Links/Blogs

Ok for readers who are too lazy to research on the market news, you can find below the links for good references:

Blogs
1- http://singaporestockmarket.blogspot.com/
2- http://singaporemind.blogspot.com/
3- http://how-to-be-rich-and-happy.blogspot.com/
4- http://tradingquotes.blogspot.com/
5- http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
6- http://extraordinaryprofits.blogspot.com/

Website
1- http://www.financeasia.com/
2- http://www.listedcompany.com/
3- http://www.fool.com/
4- http://www.remisiers.org/
5- http://www.investopedia.com/
6- http://www.salary.sg/
7- http://www.briefing.com/

Tomorrow isn't guaranteed

Saw this article on Business Times today - enjoy...

LIFE is fragile. Life is transient. And the unexpected departure of former colleague Eddie Toh from this world last Sunday was, for me, a much-needed reminder to take stock.

In our hectic lives, the days literally zoom past; it seems like everything is in fast-forward mode. Rarely do we have time to stop and consider what is really important to us.

It seems like just yesterday when a friend of mine, Carol, called me around 10 on a Sunday morning.

'Guess who's in front of me now,' she said.

Me: 'How would I know?'

Carol: 'Thaksin. He's having bak kut teh at Ah Sio Bak Kut Teh at Rangoon Road. It's very near where you are. Come quick. You can catch him here and interview him for your paper.'

Me: 'You sure it's him? Aiya, even if it is him, he may be gone by the time I get there.'

I put down the phone. But the chance that The Business Times could score a scoop with deposed Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra while he was having bak kut teh at Rangoon Road made me pick it up again.

Life's dichotomies

I called Eddie. Knowing the true news hound he was, I was sure he would make his way there. Furthermore, he lived in that area. About 10-15 minutes later, both of us reached Ah Sio's shop about the same time. Eddie came well prepared - with his note book, tape recorder and a barrage a questions for Mr Thaksin. Alas, he never got to ask them; the ex-PM had already finished his breakfast and gone.

To prove that he was there, my friend Carol showed us a photo she took with Mr Thaksin on her handphone. So we ended up having our brunch anyway. Eddie, then the deputy news editor of BT, subsequently got that photo published in the paper.

Although this happened more than a year ago in January 2007 (how time flies!), it is still fresh in my mind.

After that, Eddie left BT - and, alas, we managed to catch up only once for dinner and drinks.

There are a lot of dichotomies in life. Humans as a species are different from others because we can delay our gratification, which is one of the reasons we have progressed more than other animals.

Instead of eating all the food we have straight away, we save some for tomorrow. Instead of spending all that we have today, we save and invest. Instead of enjoying life to the fullest today, we study, we work. We sacrifice spending time doing things we like because we have an exam to take next month, or have a project deadline to meet next week.

We do all this in the hope that, some time in the future, we will get to enjoy the fruit of our labour.

Indeed, it is those who have the discipline to delay gratification who will be successful in life. What can a person make of his life if all he does every day is sip wine, loaf on the beach and feel high?

On the other hand, if we strive too much to keep up with the Joneses and keep on increasing the speed of the treadmill we are on, life becomes a drag.

There is no denying that some folks - a lucky few - derive pleasure from the work they do. Others, however, become too obsessed with material pursuits. As Nassim Taleb noted in his book Fooled by Randomness, the higher a person is promoted, the less of his time will belong to him.

In life, the fact is that we all have to do what we have to do so that we can do what we want to do. We have to work to survive, to indulge ourselves, to ensure we are financially secure so that we can raise a family or devote our time to some cause we believe in.

Perhaps, given the unpredictability of life, we should not feel guilty about pampering ourselves once in a while.

As Berkshire Hathaway's vice- chairman Charlie Munger said, every day you should give the best hour of the day to yourself. It can be spent with a loved one, or it can be spent exercising so you can remain fit and healthy, or it can be spent thinking about how best to manage your finances. And the rest of the time, you can do what you have to do.

But, of course, to have a goal, a target, is what keeps humans going. The key is to try to not make this an all-encompassing purpose that makes you lose sight and perspective of everything else.

One way to keep perspective is to derive pleasure and satisfaction from little achievements along life's path. For me, an article well done is something to be happy about. A dish well cooked is another reason to be satisfied.

But, ultimately, what people seem to remember most about life when they reach the end of their earthly journey is other people who travelled with them and the experiences they shared.

A dinner with a group of friends at Holland Village. Enjoying a picnic and concert in the park with your family. One particularly flawless game of tennis you played. Moments when the silliest of things made you laugh until you cried.

Since we never know what tomorrow will bring, we should make today - every day - count. So give your mum a call. Arrange that lunch with the friend you said you'd meet 'one day'. Make the first move to know a person you have been wanting to know. Buy a ticket to a concert to hear your favourite music.

And while you're at it, try some random kindness with no expectation of receiving anything in return. Make somebody's day. Because, like Eddie, we are all but passing through this world.

My regular readers will know my column is about the nitty-gritty of money, which is something we all need. But sometimes it pays to stop and think: there are plenty of other riches out there too.

Margin of safety

For investor remember one very important rule - Margin of safety, if your target price has not met, don't consider buy yet so you will not fall in the trap of chasing a stock.

Keep this in mind.